Monday, March 1, 2010

Repair complete

I've finished repairing the damage that the roll took yesterday. As you can see in the chart it took about 300 hands to dump off 1/20 of my roll and another 2000+ to get it back. The good news is that my .01/.02 game is solid enough that I am comfortable being able to get losses back in short order. In fact if you read the chart correctly it shows that I made about $10 today. Though these results are not necessarily typical it does make me wonder what the best route is to get to the April 1 deadline. I can get a pretty decent return with low variance by just sitting at the penny tables. The overall chart shows that I've really slowed down my bankroll growth after mixing in the nickel tables. The problem with not moving up of course is that playing penny tables is just not scalable and that in order to really boost the roll I'm going to need to tackle nickel, then dime, then quarter tables eventually.

So what's next? I'm not sure why I deviated from my original plan to fold in the nickel tables gradually. Run a lot of penny tables and only one or two nickel tables so that the variance is smoothed out and so that the penny table earnings can cover any short term losses on the nickel tables. I just dove in and opened up a screenful of .02/.05 tables and it bit me in the butt pretty hard. Thankfully I opted not to try to get the losses back immediately by playing through it or by jumping up to .05/.10. The time back at the .01/.02 tables served to remind me that I need to manage the bankroll properly in order to grow it so now I'm going to be more conservative on moving up until I get a better handle on the higher stakes. I'm still not sure that I'm actually playing that poorly. After all, I am still EV+ after rakeback but my earn rate is lower per hand than at the lower stakes but that is based on only 8000 hands so I don't know how valid that is.


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