Run Bad Illustrated

The chart says it all. The green line is what actually happened in my latest Rush NLHE session whereas the red line reflects what my EV was for the hands I was involved in.

* AK all in versus AJ spikes a J on the flop.
* AA loses to KJ suited who calls a shove on the turn with a backdoor flush draw and a gutter.
* KK vs TT preflop loses to T on the flop.
* Shove with KK and get *called* by A9 suited, A on the flop.
* QQ versus AJ preflop, spike a set  on KQ4 flop, T on river to give villain broadway.
* JJ loses flip with villain stacking off pre with AQ.
* QQ versus AJ and 99 all in pre, A on turn.
* QQ versus AK and A7, K on flop.

That's just how it goes sometimes. I'm satisfied by what the EV line tells me which is that I'm getting my money in even or better. 300 BB of negative variance is a bummer and it's too bad that the cards didn't fall the right way but I'm in it for the long term so this is nothing but a concentrated lump of run bad that will get smoothed out over time.

10,000 hand Rush check up

I figure 10,000 hands is a reasonable number to start getting a feel for my EV on Rush. Just finished a session and am currently at 10,848 hands, $.92 of profit (>$12 with rakeback), and .17 BB/100. Not riveting but at least it is EV+ against the rake. Keep in mind that this included about 1200 hands worth of throwing away everything but two hands of pocket aces back when I first started and was only after the $25 bonus. That also includes my disaster session of -$9.97 when I broke from my formula. Remove those sessions and I'd be up about $17. I'm going to keep plugging away to see if I can sustain EV+ by just playing uber TAG. If this works out then I can just do some turbo grinding, make a little bit of sugar against the rake, make a lot of rakeback, and reap the fringe benefits of the Full Tilt promotions. That's the plan at least.

Second month of Iron Man silver in the books

For the second month running I racked up 25 days of 50 or points which is enough to snag me silver status in the Iron Man promotion. I also earned at least one point per day for each day in April so I qualify for either the One-A-Day freeroll or 15 bonus medals. After much investigation I have decided to start playing the freerolls instead of converting them to bonus medals. They have restructured the Iron Man store and removed the $26 and $75 tokens which were what I had planned to purchase as the best deal. They still have token equivalents as well as tournament tickets to their "Steps" series of tourneys, FTOPS tickets, and Mini-FTOPS tickets. So basically the only thing worth buying are tourney tickets. I can still get cash or FTPoints but those are poor values in comparison plus they count against your rakeback in some way or another. Since the Iron Man freerolls are open only to Iron Man participants I am going to work on those because I've heard that many players don't show up. Maybe because they don't realize that they need to opt out of the tourneys and don't know they are enrolled or perhaps they just had too much to drink the night before and don't want to get up and play a donkament in the morning. Whatever the reason, it works in my favor. They are supposed to be reasonably easy to at least mini-cash and they have a very flat payout structure with people on 2+2 saying that they pay 30% of the field. I'll know more after I play my first freerolls which will be on May 8th in accordance to their second Saturday of the month schedule. Sweet!

Stick to the program!

After a series of successful sessions of Rush I decided to mess with the formula, much to the detriment of my earn rate. Instead of shoving or folding I started to set mine, raise pot sized bets, cbet, etc. In other words I was kinda playing poker and it did not go well. AK versus AQ on an AQx flop, buh bye stack. Pot sized raise JQ steal attempt sees a J high flop and I pay off a set of sixes. Suck out by an underpair after a three way pot forms. You get the idea. While there are definitely tweaks to the formula that should be made I need to fold in one variable at a time and not make wholesale changes. I am unfortunately now EV- against the rake. I am however EV+ through the miracle of rakeback but I really want to avoid that crutch. I do remain committed to riding out .02/.05 Rush until my curve stabilizes to see how the EV does over a large enough sample set.

Yummm...Kool-Aid!

I must confess that after sipping from the cup of Rush Poker I now have developed a thirst for this sweet colorful over-sugared new ambrosia. Having experienced the delicious taste of success I decided to delve in to Rush again with the intent of finding out whether I can play it profitably or not against the rake so I jumped back on to the .02/.05 NLHE tables and plunked down a buy in. Sure enough, I have been EV+ with my uber-TAG formula which, simplified, is fold everything and shove premium pairs. As ridiculous as that sounds it has stood the test for over 7000 hands since people will call off ridiculously light. Pocket deuces to a shove? Sure, why not, since ducks have an edge against any hand that includes a deuce in it; otherwise, it is basically flipping or crushed. I think people think that only AK and air shove into just the blinds. Oh well, works out for me.

The real beauty of Rush is that it works well for me. I can employ my absurd play style and get paid. It is EV+ against the rake which means it is even more EV+ with rakeback. It is fast, as in 1500 hands/hour fast when I play four Rush tables at once (they don't allow any more than that) which translates into way more Full Tilt Points/hour and that significantly cuts down on the time needed to harvest them. More points/hour means that I can clear my Iron Man requirements in a fraction of the time which translates to faster and easier clearing of my 50 points and/or being able to target the 100 point days which would allow me to move up to gold or even iron categories and all of the benefits that entails. The big win will be when the semi-annual bonus comes up since Rush will allow me to easily clear the bonus that I am currently on pace for. I had previously calculated that I would need to clear 89 points per day which would have been a stretch before but it will now be trivial to collect the entire bonus so sometime in July or August I should have an additional $200 on the ol' bankroll...minimum. If I bump up my Iron Man status then I would get even more bonus money available to me at the mid-year break.

To paraphrase a common saying..."stuff" just got real.

MMM: In a Rush?

Dear Sushi Cowboy,


Based on our records of your play on Full Tilt Poker it seems like you do a lot of multi-tabling and it is for players like you that we have created Rush Poker tables. Is there anything we can do to get you to try them out?


Andy B.
Team Full Tilt

Dear Mr. B,

Funny you should mail me about that. As it turns out I got a promotional offer to try Rush Poker when it first came out. I forget all of the strings that were attached but I thought that a first time deposit was one of the conditions and I didn't want to have to run around trying to get money online and cleared fast enough to take advantage of that promo so I passed.

However, last week I got a pop up offering me $25 to clear 50 Full Tilt Points at Rush tables with no other requirements. That just so happened to coincide with a busy week for me and I was looking for a way to score some quick points because of my schedule so I actually did try it. You seem like a numbers guy so you can appreciate that I did the math and figured that I had a no-lose proposition available to me. After looking over the figures I found that the highest pot size to (SB+BB) ratio was at the .02/.05 NLHE 9 handed tables. Based on the average pot size I calculated that I could play and fold *every* hand until I amassed 50 points and still come out well ahead. With an average pot size of .75 that means .05 rake or .05 points each hand roughly. 50 points would therefore be 1000 hands and at a nine handed table that's 111 orbits. At .07 in blinds per orbit it is going to cost me less than $8 in blinds to get $25 with zero risk.

Since the offer expired last Sunday I decided to give Rush Poker a try on Thursday. I was running behind schedule on grinding out 50 points and figured I could make up the balance very quickly on Rush. I played 414 hands and was extremely passive to say the least...I had a VPIP of exactly zero. Despite that stat, I did actually win three hands by getting two walks and a free showdown with AQos which was good for TPTK and a massive .14 pot. I just played long enough to clear my 50 points for the day then I quit. I tried to time it so that I could get as many free hands in as possible but it's tough to know exactly in Rush. I double checked my figures and indeed I was down $3.15 and earned 18.43 points which is right in line with the expected burn rate. So far so good.

On Friday I figured I would finish off the balance but I also decided to loosen up my starting hand requirements a bit and play aces by shoving my full stack into any pot where I pick them up. My second session was even more successful. I played 833 hands and actually lost less than my first session even though I played twice as many hands thanks to five walks, two uncontested showdowns (sixes held up and Q8os made two pair), and two hands with aces (one hand I shoved UTG and got called by QdJd and Ad2d while 88 doubled me up in the other).

All told I was down $6.18 for all hands but netted out $18.82 which was even more than I had planned. I'm EV- at Rush without the bonus payouts which I attribute to my microscopic VPIP even though my win at showdown percentage is good. I'm not fully sold on Rush Poker yet but I can see it as being a possibly EV+ game if I tweak my ranges a little more since people are clearly willing to stack off light.

Thanks for bring up the topic Andy and we'll see you on the felt!
Sushi Cowboy

HOTD: Guess I'm just paying this one off

Three way limped pot to a 6c7cQd flop. I check from the SB, BB bets pot of .06, MP calls and I call with AcKcxx. Turn is 5c giving me the nut flush and I want to milk it a bit so I make it 1/2 pot and get called in twice. River leaves the board unpaired and I want to extract value from a presumed set in the BB so I only bet .08 into a .60 pot. Get a call from the BB then a shove from MP. I have half a stack left behind and his bet would put me all in. Ironically, there's really not a lot that I'm beating here. Villain's line is completely consistent with a straight flush and since I have Ac and Kc it makes it even more likely that I'm beat here since even the worst donks wouldn't raise with the third nut flush, they'd just call behind. Plus the flat call on the turn and shove on the river smells exactly like the nutter butters. Although I'm fairly sure I'm beat here I commit the rest of my stack anyway. BB folds and villain shows 8c9c for the straight flush as expected and the nut straight flush at that. I'm not sure how I feel about the call. I did consider that villain thought I may have been betting a set of 5s then slowed down on the river when the board didn't pair and he wanted to get paid for his flush but that still doesn't really fit the line for a 3rd nut flush or worse. It is possible that I called off half a stack because it is "only" 33 cents or that I did not give villain full credit because of the microstakes but I also think there is something to be said for folding when you are pretty sure you are behind.  The pot was giving me about 4.5:1 and I don't think that I'm right often enough in that exact spot for a call to be profitable long term.

Number watch - 8.91

Thankfully back down in double digits again. I would summarize my play of late as being pure nit, pure value. I'm basically playing a few kinds of hands:

* AAxx - If I can get enough all in pre-flop to be pot committed then I'm going with it.

* High pocket pairs for sets as in jacks or better. Looking only for huge ROI here by limping in and folding if raised more than a min pre-flop and folding on the flop if I miss.

* Nut flush draws with some helpful side cards.

* Perfect rundowns.

I'm folding anything else and I want to see as cheap a flop as possible so I'm only willing to pay the minimum. Since I'm short stacking I think it is a mistake to call a raise at the short buy in tables because I'm not getting enough implied when I do hit.

The results speak for themselves. In the last session I was up $2.08 and only lost one hand over 10 cents and that was a crying call on my part hoping that my aces were good on an ugly board. Other than that I won all contested showdowns, being 2:1 or better in five of the six and a little shy of neutral equity in a three way all in. Think I'm going to ride this train until I can get my number down to zero.

Number watch - 11.28

I am back to full nit mode and have been getting my money in way good. I've cut out going aggro with thin holdings and the bankroll has adjusted accordingly. I question whether I possibly did not fully maximize value on a couple of hands. As soon as I got there I slammed the door shut instead of trying to get string villain along but the pots were already pretty big and I'd rather just take it down right there even at the expense of long term EV. Overall, good steady progress. Have to remember to nit up pre-flop since that has been part of my formula when I am EV+.

HOTD: Flopping the universe

I limp with JJ77ds, SB pots it and I call. Speculative but I was just getting tired of getting run all session. Flop is 77J giving me nut low quads and top boat. Villain fires a half pot sized bet and I have nothing more original to do than slow play even though there is a potential GSSFD lurking. I'm pretty sure villain is committed to pushing his hand through anyway but flat call it is. Turn is a T and he bets enough to put me in and I elect not to slow roll him so I present my hand to show him drawing dead. Unfortunately I cannot catch the case jack to give myself quads over quads. Maybe next time.

Going backwards

Now is not the time to be trying out new things. I should just stick with ABC Omaha instead. I started off so well and I have had a terrible few sessions of lacking discipline. I did have a couple of costly hands where villain was chasing a flush draw then backed into a straight of better two pair but I accept responsibility for most of it. The number is back down to 16.67 which is a major change of course from being down to single digits. I have a direction I want to go in as far as my pre-flop hand selection goes but for now I'm not going to mess with the formula and just get back to some disciplined, focused grinding.

Big hit to the number - 15.62

Another one of those sessions. Just couldn't seem to get anything right, getting out-flopped, drawn out, out-boarded, etc. Took a look over my hands and I didn't see anything super drastically wrong. I could have chosen not to pursue a top and bottom on the flop but I was basically pot committed. I'm now backed down to about the 1/4 milestone. Disappointing.

Lost focus

Can't tell if it was the competition or having too many things on my plate while trying to play poker at the same time but the results were disastrous. Really just was trying too hard to make things happen that weren't there. Putting my money in way light and not surprisingly losing those hands. My head just was not in the right place and I knew it. Maybe villains were actually super aggro, maybe it was just my perception. Sure seemed like I would either miss or when I hit then villain would hit harder. Either way, doesn't matter. If things aren't going well I should pull over and let the engine cool. Also, I started watching the points counter instead of the cashier total and when that happens I semi-subconsciously start focusing on making big pots to drive those numbers. Partly ridiculous since it was so early in the day and I plenty of time to get the points cleared by EOD but in my head I felt the need to push the action. Bad, bad, bad. At one point I was heavily flirting with going back down to the 1/3 of the milestone mark. I did get a better session in where I tacked on a solid two bucks but I am still south of halfway at -$12.72.

HOTD: Sucker end of the straight

I limp in the cutoff seat with 789Tds, BB pots it to .12, MP calls, I call, button calls. Flop comes JQK rainbow and BB bets .30 into a .50 pot. Fold in front of me and unknown behind me. I have .46 left in my stack and mull it over. BB potted pre-flop so I can definitely give him credit for a pocket pair or a high run. If the flop came TJQ then I'm outta there but a JQK flop would mean threading the needle and it's just a lot harder to flop broadway with those cards. True he could have a dangler T but there is one fewer side card to be a T if he has a pocket pair plus I have one of the Ts as a mini-blocker. So I go ahead and follow my instinct and put my stack in plus I two backdoor flush draws just in case. Button folds and villain shows QQJK for a set and holding blockers to his own outs. Great, I'm 2:1. Turn is a badugi 9. River is a 5. Ship it.

No excuses this time

I actually did get my money in bad a couple times by overplaying my aces when I was not pot committed. Had a big pot where I flopped top set and got run down but got it in way good. Still the damage this morning was mostly my own doing and I hold myself fully accountable. Bad Sushi! Hate being back on the wrong side of the tracks but the number has ballooned back up to double digits at $11.64.

Small step back - 10.28

I hope I never get tired of saying that I got my money in good. Down .74 for the session even though I played all of my all in hands correctly. I got my stack in way good pre-flop a couple times and lost. Just for giggles though I checked the hands where I was under 50% and won the hand and in each of those cases, yes, I beat the odds, but I was adequately priced in to do so. For instance, I raised pre-flop with aces and flopped top set on an all club board. I'm second to last to act and I pot it and get called by the cutoff who happened to flop the nut flush. I was short enough that it was the right play to call off since I had 40% equity still with my boat outs which happened to come on the river.

Sometimes I have a lot to show for playing well and sometimes I don't. This session was one where I don't.

Number watch - down to single digits, 9.54

Another solid session, this time against mindlessly aggro villains. I give up a lot of stolen blinds and call incessant raises to see flops but when I hit I get paid in full. Overall EV+, a little irritating but I'll take it in exchange for the sugar. That last session took me around the corner and got me past me the halfway point. I'm a penny shy of a $1/hour earn rate and am churning at 14.8 BB/100.

I know I've said this before but I'm continually amazed at how well watching the number has been working. And though I don't want to jinx it I was quietly estimating that I could erase the $20 deficit in ten days but I'm well ahead of that pace having cut it in half in less than two days. I just need to do more of the same and the finish line will show up when it shows up.

A flourishing green line. And though I know the rakeback line is a good deal above that I'm leaving it turned off so it doesn't divert attention away. The EV line is turned off too even though it shows that my actual earnings are only about 80% of what it "should" be.

HOTD: Crowded board

I limp UTG with AKJ6ss. Four way flop brings TJQ rainbow, nice, that would be the nuts. I pot it, next to act raises, both others call, I call. Turn is a trey and I throw in my last three pennies. Call, call, call. I'm pretty sure I'm chopping here or something with this many people around. River is a 7 and everyone checks through in the electronic equivalent of a palms up looking around the table. I scoop and was up against: 9985 for the sucker end of the straight; TT52, bottom set; and QQT4, top set along with taking bottom set's one outer so he's drawing dead on the flop. Plus I took one of the jacks away so apart from a running pair there was only one queen and two jacks to trump my broadway straight. Good place to be.

Gave some back

The number is back to 11.86. Biggest loss was when I raised pre with AA52ds and flopped the nut flush. Bet it all the way on an unpaired board and ran into a flopped straight flush which I didn't even notice. I'm paying that off anyway but I was disappointed that I didn't even notice the possibility since I was just looking for the board pairing. Had two pair counterfeited. Couldn't get villain to drop his top pair jack with no kicker to pressure from my pfr with two overs and nut flush draw. I don't mind since I was even money for getting my money in on my draw. Unfortunately villain #2 was chasing the same flush draw and we both had three of the suit in hand so there were only five left in the deck. To his credit, villain #2 did have an OESFD though I held one of his outs.

Number watch - 10.28

Almost halfway there now. Had a really strong session early this morning which happened to exactly offset the -$2.43 session from yesterday with +$2.43 of sweet delicious sugar. Just got done with another session against terrible play. The eyes go full rotation when these fish chase gutters and catch but overall way EV+ to be sitting with them. I dug a pretty bad hole when I repeatedly got my money in good and made villain pay the maximum only to get sucked out on but the numbers straightened themselves out eventually and I booked a small gain.

Keeping my eye on the prize and just not donking around have done wonders for the bankroll. The numbers back it up too with a strong $1.12/hour earn rate and playing at a 17.3 bb/100 clip. My EV numbers are even stronger so my game is way on track. My main concern now is that I want to make sure to keep the number directly in front of me and not look past it to the next thing. When I look at my chart I don't even have the rakeback line turned on so as not to distract me. As long as getting the number to zero is the one thing then everything will work out fine.

First day of the number - now 14.23

Overall a pretty darn successful day I'd say. Over a quarter of the way there and as far as EV goes it should be even further but I'll take it. I realize now how much I used to look more at my Full Tilt Points counter instead of my bankroll number, much to the detriment of my play. I have to admit that I've been far more profitable at rakeback and bonuses than I have in my poker playing so maybe that is partly justified but if I hope to maximize my take in the half yearly bonus then I'd better get at least EV neutral at something so I don't steal from Peter to pay Paul. Speaking of which, I have more than 2% of the points needed for my MacBook now. Can't stress enough how the number has gotten my focus back on bankroll building which I have gotten way far away from. Really really solid poker for almost the entire day. Got loose in one of the later sessions and the results show it but tightened back up to back fill the divot I left. Just need to do more of the same for a few more days and I'll reach the goal. Focus!

Another hit to the number

Down $2.43 in a brutal session. All in pre-flop with aces eight times:

Heads up 70% - Lost
Three way pot 64%(!) - Lost
Heads up 63% - Lost
Heads up 63% - Won
Heads up 50% - Chop with other AA
Heads up 60% - Lost
Three way 43% - Lost
Three way 43% - Won

Each of those hands were for stacks plus. I did steam off a buy in in there as well but the bottom line for that session was a bunch of run bad. I was happy to get my money in as I did in each one of those situations but just couldn't get the cards to fall correctly. A step back in the number to -$15.75 but playing way EV+ poker.

Inevitable down session

No surprise. I had a session where I ended down .72. Not worried. I lost two big hands:

I got half my stack in 3:1 with my AAT6ds vs AKKQss. Put the rest in on the QT6 flop as a 2:1 favorite. Turn was a jack and river blanked.

Got more than half of my stack in with AAQ9ss and put the rest in on a TT3 flop where I'm either way ahead or way behind. I was way behind.

No regrets. Still playing real solid. Small setback but not unexpected.

HOTD: Villain over-estimates

It's three to the flop and I have QQ66 which is good for top set on a QJ4 rainbow flop. Villain min bets .02 into the .12 pot, one caller, then I pot it to .20. Villain calls, third party leaves. Turn is a rainbow deuce and I still have the nuts. Villain min bets again, .02 into a .54 pot. I re-pot, he calls and we're all in. Villain shows KTT2 for bottom pair and a bare open ender. River is a 9 and villain drags the chips.

Yeah, I was "only" 80% on the turn so it wasn't a huge suckout. The irritating part is villain's min-bets. What's with that? And I am pretty sure that he vastly over-estimated his equity. I'm assuming that he put me on QJ in which case another deuce would make trips, a king would make a better two pair, a ten would make a set, and of course any 9 or ace would give him the nut straight. As it turns out he only had the eight outs instead of the 15 which I assume he thought he had. That's Omaha I suppose. Despite that draw out I still eeked out a small profit for the session.

Number watch - now 12.82

Sometimes things just go your way. While I was doing a good job of putting myself in the position to win, the cards cooperated as well. AA held up in a big three way pot, hit some sets, villain's draws didn't get there, etc. Just a session of play good/run good and the number reflects that. Currently on a streak of six winning sessions (small ones) in a row now good for a few bucks of sugar on the green line and takes me past the 1/3 point on the way to zero. Concentrating on "the number" has really helped me stay focused and bring my A game because it is directly in front of me and it helps prevent me from spewing chips on trap hands.

So now the task at hand is to realize that variance will eventually throw me a losing session. I need to be ready to go backwards at some point and avoid trying to chase in an effort to keep the streak alive, something that has bitten me in the past. Just stay on track and the green line will cross the zero point when it's good and ready. The better I play, the better it is for the green line. Simple...in concept at least, just have to manage the execution part.

MMM: Online tells

Mr. Sushi Cowboy,


I'm wondering if you've noticed any tells online. There doesn't seem to be much information to go on since you don't get to see your opponent or anything he does. I've had a bad experience before where some kid noticed one of my tells in my live game.


T. KGB
New York City

Mr. KGB

I would agree that there is less to go on but that doesn't mean there isn't still information available. I am far from an online poker expert but some of the things that I've noticed are the following:

* Set snap raise - Let's say you flop top two pair on a medium dry/wet board then lead out for a pot sized bet. If villain fires back instantly then he more likely has a set than a draw. It's not a big difference in timing but generally speaking, players can't get their chips in fast enough when they flop a set. Even in Omaha with more cards available flopping a set is still uncommon and I guess people just want to vigorously defend their hand.

* Deep stack - People who have a large stack of upwards of two or three times the maximum buy in got that way for a reason. Maybe a lucky double up but more often the people in that position got there from winning more than their fair share of pots which I interpret as not always having it and playing position more often than the average player. If someone has a deep stack I will assume that they are going to be more likely to be floating so I'll call a little lighter and will check after I make my hand to try to induce a bluff.

I'm sure there are way more than just those but those the ones that I've noticed which I find to be the most reliable. In the end it's just playing the numbers and tells can add or subtract a few percentage points to your assessment of the hand since tells are no guarantee. Sometimes you're right and can scoop a pot because of it and sometimes you're wrong. That's the way the cookie crumbles. Hope that helps.

Sushi Cowboy

Number watch - down to 15.06

Another solid session this morning. Had a disappointing suckout by villain to start it off but I know I got it in good and that's all I can do. Rest of the session went better. Making more disciplined folds now which is the biggest thing to help spewing chips. The game is Omaha and it is simply too easy for villain to actually have it even if you think he's just bluffing. Just a much better job of picking my spots. About 1/4 of the way to zero and for simplified tracking I've highlighted the number in the "By the numbers" section.

One number, starting at 20

Enough is enough. Time for me to stop donking my chips off. For whatever reason I've been treating my roll like I just don't care. I think part of it is because I have (rather, HAD) a cushion of sugar that I was really loose with. So now it's time to straighten up and fly right. I've given myself the goal of reaching break even at .01/.02 PLO. As of this morning I was 19 bucks and change under water and that is the number that I need to get down to zero...or UP to zero as it may be. Having a concrete goal to focus on will help me from straying from the straight and narrow. The fact that I can't even beat the lowest rung is pretty bad. So far I've been hiding behind the smoke and mirrors of rakeback and bonuses but BB/100 against the rake is the standard and I need to play by those rules.

So here I go, 20 bucks, 1000 big blinds. I'll be playing exclusively .01/.02 PLO until I am EV neutral for that game over all my hands. I just finished a session that got me going in the right direction so now I'm at -18.39. And even though every dollar I gain in raw bankroll is multiplied by the rakeback factor I'm ignoring that for now. Turn off the blue line, I'm on the green line until I get back out of the hole.

Below is the graph of just the .01/.02 PLO hands. Hard to believe I was +30 at one point. Onward.

HOTD: Full boat springs a leak

Four to a limped flop and I have 79TJss. Flop comes TT7 two diamonds. Hey, I have a T...no wait, I have a T and a 7, that's a pretty good flop. SB bets into me, cool, maybe he has a T or even 77 which would be ideal. No slow playing a boat in Omaha so I jam on him, back, forth, back until we're all in. He shows QQ with a diamond suited Q. Not a terrible play if I only have a T since he has a few diamonds (not all of them since some will hit my side cards) and two queens as clean outs. Once I play back at him that's a pretty easy fold but he wants to gamble so here we go. Turn is 6c. River brings a queen. That's just how some of my sessions have been going lately.

Nope, elevator continues to go down

Not sure what's going on exactly except that villain just "has it" every single time. If I jam with AA preflop then I get out flopped or they don't hold. Even when I manage to flop top set it turns out that I'm still only flipping against a superdraw. And the one time when I did manage to get it in with a 75% edge I lost to a flush draw that got there. My graph is uglier now than it's ever been before and I'm going to need to institute some kind of stop loss mechanism since I'm back under $200 including my recent $25 bonus so I've really dropped off. Wow, just...wow.

Time to regroup

I have to stop throwing chips around like they're free because they aren't. I had justified some of my losses by offsetting them mentally by my $25 bonus I got recently. And like an overzealous consumer spending his paycheck before he gets it, I have been projecting forward to the $200 semi-annual bonus that is supposed to come up at the end of June. But that bonus is only available if I play through 4000 Full Tilt Points and if I lose more than $200 in that play through then the bonus is offset by losses. Bottom line: I'm losing focus on beating the game because I'm concentrating too much on the bonuses. Now I shouldn't ignore the bonuses because they are a valid way to offsetting the fact that I'm getting 27% rakeback compared to the 33% on Cake. Still, I need to keep my eyes on being EV+ enough at these games to beat the rake which I should be able to do especially since I already have beaten the rake before.

Part of where the wheels fell of was during the run of sit and go tourneys. Not because I lost a bunch of money there but because it threw off my accounting. My text file of my last dollar value no longer applied after the cashier value changed due to tourneys being played. Another part I think was that after the April 1 milestone I no longer had a clear target in mind. So I'm now going to itemize each facet separately so I'm forced to face the music and not bury my performance in rakeback and bonuses and that will be reflected in the "By the numbers" section. I'm hoping that will help get my game turned around and get me to keep driving toward getting EV+ and stop worrying about overall bankroll numbers since they will naturally follow after I start playing better.

As of today the numbers are looking pretty grim:
For penny stakes Omaha I'm at -$16.26 or -.76 BB/100

For nickel stakes Omaha I'm at a horrendous -$76.60 or -9.36 BB/100

Sit and go tourneys are -$46.75 which is -21.5 ROI

All of those numbers are in the negative and need some serious attention. The only reason I'm not broke yet is through the good graces of rakeback and bonuses. Lot of work to do.

Bottoming out...hopefully

Plunging to new depths. 20% run bad. 30% play bad. 50% just not caring. The chart says it all.

Just 10% of my roll

For whatever reason I had a session earlier today where I just tore through about $20 of my roll. Whatever hesitations I had about playing at nickel stakes have dissipated. I think I've passed straight through "healthy disregard for money" and dove into "utter disregard for money" and that's a problem. The spew was mostly just being sloppy. I did have a couple suck outs but that is only a few bucks worth. I knew it at the time too but I was just trying to play through it when I should have taken a break. I'm not worried about the amount of the dip, I'll get it back easily enough. What does concern me is the fact that I didn't put on the brakes when I knew things were getting out of control.

The good news is that after my sweat session with Jason I've opened up my game more. My pre-flop hand selection was way too tight and I'm seeing more flops now. I'm also being more aggressive pre-flop and stealing more from the button. All of these adjustments have contributed to better play so even though I don't always bring my best game, my best game is better than it used to be. I guess the down side is that playing more wide open when I'm playing poorly means my chips go away faster. It's a double edged sword but I'm going to need that sword going forward and will just need to minimize the negative effects.

Churning out points

I got behind schedule today since I was busy doing other stuff and was way short on my daily quota of Full Tilt Points so I had to crank out points in short order before heading out to the live game tonight. So out comes a full screen of .02/.05 tables to maximize rake/FTPoints per hour. Started out OK, then I got too loose, then I TAG'ed it up and got up a ways, then came back down. Overall I ended the session up and notched my 50th point for the day right before I ran out the door to get to the live game on time. Have to make sure to pace myself better so I'm not cramming at the last minute. It worked out this time but it easily could have taken a turn for the worse and I'd be stuck playing losing poker just so I could get my allotment of points for the day. Dodged a bullet.

MMM: What is this thing called...rake?

This week's Monday Morning Mailbag comes from a reader wondering why 2 + 2 does not equal 4.

Hey Sushi,


Can you help me out on the math here? I bought into a Rush Poker game for an even $5, played one hand heads up against another player who had $2.50 in front of him. We got it all in on a chop and at the end of the hand I had $4.83 in my stack. What happened to my five bucks? We split the pot.


Adam
Phoenix AZ

Dear Nickeled and Dimed,

You have run into what we in the business call...rake. On FTP at the low stakes you are paying 1 cent of rake for every 15 cents in the pot which means you're paying up to 6 2/3% of every pot. Now in your situation you had a $5 pot which got raked for 33 cents, 17 cents from you and 16 cents from your opponent and it was made very obvious by the fact that it was a large pot, got chopped, and you started with a nice round number. You still get raked the same amount but when it is a small pot that you scoop and you start with $4.38 in your stack then the rake is much less conspicuous. Rake, while a necessary evil, is a relentless foe which steadily erodes your bankroll.

To illustrate the effect here are some numbers. Currently I am -$63.36 against the rake in the cash games. With rakeback I am $143.01 up. If I got 33% rakeback like Cake offers then I'd have $185.34 in profit. If I somehow were able to find a site that didn't charge any rakeback I would have $658.11 in sugar, over $500 more than where I am now. Obviously you want to do whatever you can to minimize the effects of rake which is partly why I did not start out with Omaha Hi/Lo since there are so many split pots where you end up just getting your own money back but minus rake.

I hope that explains the discrepancy that you noticed in your stack.

Sushi Cowboy

Money in the bank

FTP has already paid out the bonus for the Take 2 promo and just like that my bankroll is $25 fatter. Looking forward to the mid-year bonus and churning out enough points to earn as much of the projected $200 that will be on the table as I can.

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HOTD: Turned flush then river pairs

.01/.02 Omaha with .59 in front of me and everyone else at the table has me covered. I limp with AJ98 in MP and there are four of to the flop which comes KQ3 two hearts giving me a nutter gutter to broadway and the nut flush draw, 11 clean outs plus maybe Qh if that doesn't boat someone up. Checks to me and I decide to just try to peel off a free one. Button makes a half-hearted stab of .04 into a pot of .13 in the middle. BB calls, MP1 calls and I call to put .24 in the middle now. Turn brings 5h which gives me the nuts. Checks to me and I want to try to milk this a bit since I suspect someone else might be on a heart draw as well since it is one of the obvious draws on the flop and the stab got three callers so I put out a half pot bet as meekly as I could in case anyone wants to come over the top but the BB just calls and nobody else follows us to the river. River brings another 5 and BB checks to me. I've said it before that people see themselves in other players and sure enough I just check behind in case the guy was going to check-raise me which I immediately recognized as a mistake. Does he really have a boat here? Why would he check when I am clearly repping a flush and not a set? He loses all value by letting me check behind when I will certainly call something if I have a flush and will check behind if I have nothing so there is nothing to be gained by checking his boat. And how did he get there? He check/called a bet from the button on the flop with a set on a draw heavy board? Really? Maybe I guess but you'd figure most people would run right through the opened door. Did he have just a pair then made two pair on the turn? Then why is he calling the flop? Pocket fives would definitely check call the turn but how can anyone just check quads? If he indeed has anything he will call a modest value bet and if he comes over the top well all in, well then he can have it even though he butchered the hand. Though the value bet may have only been a couple BBs every little bit helps. If he paid off even three cents then that would negate the effect of rake on that hand to me. Turns out he had K3 for top and bottom on the flop then called off a half pot sized bet on a four outer when all the river did was counterfeit him. A sub-optimal play but also a reminder to always try to squeeze out as much extra value from a hand as possible.

Took 2

Achievement unlocked. Just cranked out five points across multiple tables which is good enough to clear my ninth consecutive day in the Take 2 promotion and worth $25 glued onto the ol' bankroll. Couldn't have come at a better time since I have just been getting pummeled by the deck...well, and by my own doing as well but I've certainly been getting help. According the FTP's rules page "Prize money for Take 2 will be paid by Wednesday, April 14th." so I'll have a spike in the bankroll in the next few days. In retrospect I probably should have held off on doing my S&G's and concentrated on ring games this week since I was getting double points. Then again with as bad I was running maybe it was better to stick to tourneys where I at least have my losses capped. Regardless, the check's in the mail and it will be a welcome sight to have a 10%+ bounce at the cashier window.

Thank you sir, may I have another?

So. Efforts to play through the run bad have failed. I flop broadway and get it all in figuring we're probably chopping given how much action I got. Nope, KTxx for top and bottom, K on the turn. If he flopped a set I'd understand it more but chasing a four outer? Thanks for trying to give your chips away. Sorry it didn't work out this time. Got it in with aces against random high cards on a paired flop which pre-counterfeits villain's two pair outs. Running jacks. Aces all in against JJTQ flop is K76 with two of my flush suit. Runner runner broadway including a two-out ace on the river. On the plus side I made my set. Top two pair run down by flush. You know the drill.

This caps the most precipitous drop in bankroll history which in combination with my tourney losses puts my roll back under the $200 mark and approximately $60 lower than the all time peak. I'm obviously concerned at the steep fall off but I'm not sure that I'm necessarily doing anything wrong. My buy in's are still under $2 which is less than 1% of my roll, granted, I'm buying in for many of them at one time but any single cooler has negligible effect. I know that I was not playing optimally after I took some beats and I did pull the plug before I continued doing damage. Still, I don't feel that steaming off chips accounted for the majority of the problem. Going to look over the carnage and figure out what to do next.

Encountering some run bad

On the bubble in a $2 + .25 tourney, UTG raises to 600, 3x the BB, button folds, I'm the SB with AA and make it 2000 or about half my stack, BB snap shoves, UTG calls and I'm not going anywhere so I call off the rest of my chips. UTG shows JJ while BB couldn't get his chips in fast enough with ducks after a raise and a re-raise. Whatever. I'm in good shape to bust out the bubble boy and take a commanding lead. Flop is AK3 rainbow and I vault to a 96% lead. Ducks catch runner runner wheel. At least I bust out in 3rd since I had UTG covered but that was an ouch.

Switch to .02/.05 where I have second set on a 5JT flop and get it all in against AQQJ, turn is an A to give me broadway, river is a J to give villain a bigger boat. Then on another table I run my buy in up to $2.64 and get AAT4ss and pot it UTG, villain re-pots it, then me, then him, then I call. I know it's going to be a high variance hand when it takes that many back and forths to get all in but I'm going to ride my edge. He shows KK44ss and I love seeing his low pair since my 4 takes away one of his outs. I'm 70% and liking my chances. Flop comes out and brings a K but a split second later I see the A that came out as well and I'm 91% now. K on the turn. The end.

Wah, wah, wah. Yeah, I know it's just variance. Cash game ended up costing me $15 by the time I finished steaming off chips after my beat. Yuck.

Down, even, and up

Four more tourneys earlier today, min-cashed in one and did a splendid job of running into big pairs in the BB when I'm shoving from the SB. A real treat. In the hole from those shenanigans. Then I played four more later in the day and busted out of three with the help of some bad luck but I battled back from a short stack to win the fourth so that breaks me even for those four. Actually one first place out of four buys nets me .27 due to rakeback but we'll just call it even. Then midnight ET comes around and I decide that I'm going to go back to the old neighborhood and grind out my five points for Saturday's quota of the Take 2 promo at the .01/.02 tables with the condition that I had to be profitable. For whatever reason, I've been doing better at Omaha after taking the stint at the S&Gs. No idea why that is, perhaps it's just switching gears, perhaps it's the freedom to play hands where you're not worried about busting out and wasting 45 minutes for nothing. But whatever it is, it seems to be working in my favor. I churned out about $2.50 in profit at the penny tables and I've been doing better at the nickel tables as well. Not a bad day's work. Just waiting for the odds to catch up with me on these make or break coin flips and coolers that I've been having in the tourneys. Side note: I passed 5000 Full Tilt Points which is closing in on 2% of my new laptop.

Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble

Launched four more S&Gs and fell short of break even again. Short stack at the table and I shove with 77 for 11 bigs, get called by 66 and he spikes a six. Bubble out. Second table, I shove for 11 bigs with 66 and get called by KQos and the board runs 77T 2 T. Coun-ter-feit-ed. Bubble out. Third table, need chips and it folds to me in the SB and I shove with 56os to steal the BB for the orbit. Get called by AJ. Flop an open-ender but don't make it. Bubble out. Actually did reach the money of the four table then I over committed with A8os when I shoved with 18 BB and could have gotten away with a 3x BB raise. Tactical error there that could have cost me moving up the ladder.

Undeterred by the S&Gs. I had a bad stretch in the early running where I was too laissez-faire about my chips. I'm treating them with more respect now and have tightened up my game but just running into some bad variance. I'm down 38.20 in tourneys so far with 15 more to go. HEM says taking into consideration my EV that I should be down about half that. Initially I just wanted to plow through the S&Gs, take my money and run but that was bad for the roll. I've seen the error in my ways but still paying the price for the hole I dug. Part of it the rationalization was the 25 "free" dollars I have coming for the Take 2 promo so I kinda wrote off losses early as being covered but I've exceeded that and now need to manage the issue much more carefully. I'm attentive to it but not worried.

Green line is raw earnings/losses. Blue line includes rakeback. Red line is expected value if the the cards would just do what they're supposed to.

Four S&G's with early exits

I opened up four $2 + .25 Hold'em S&Gs and left early each time. First table, first hand I get QQ in the BB. Four limpers and the SB completes. I am not going to mess around and just shove. If someone is trapping me with AA or KK then so be it. In go the chips and second to act calls. Sure enough he was trapping with...2h4h? Flop is 822 and I never catch up. Next table involves a donk fest hand where four people got it in and a crappy hand won. So next hand the three losers all steam shove their stacks in and I have snowmans. I call off 2/3 of my stack (mistake) and lose to one of the many over cards to my pair. I then go aggro with any reasonable hand to try to build my stack back up then finally get called by JJ when I went with QTos and don't connect. In the third tourney I shove with AK and get called by 55 which in all likelihood is coin flipping at best; nonetheless, he wins the flip and I'm done with that one. Last tourney I pick up KK, pot it, have a guy shove and I snap call. He shows jacks which coincidentally happen to match one of the cards in the flop and I don't catch up. So there you go. Four tourneys, four flame outs. Time to call it a night.

HOTD: Prohibitive favorite

I have almost a full buy in front of me at the nickel tables, pick up AA34ds, and get in a raising war with another player until we're all in. I have this guy in such a bad way because he is bringing KKQJds and I have both of this suits covered which is good enough for a nearly 70% pre-flop favorite. As if that's not enough, the flop bring T42 with two diamonds which neither of us have and one club so I have the backdoor club draw taken care of. The flop increases my edge to 83% now that I have two pair, trip, and a gut shot wheel draw to go with my dominating pair advantage. Offsuit J on the turn is less than ideal but I'm still better than 2:1. River brings an ugly queen and he slips out of the noose he made for himself. Disappointing.

HOTD: River heroics

I'm in the SB with AAK8ss at .02/.05 Omaha. MP flat calls, folds to me and I make it .15 to go. BB calls and MP calls. .45 in the middle and we see a flop of K52 rainbow. I lead for half pot since I only have .15 of my $1.63 starting stack and I'm not pot committed. BB folds and MP flats. Turn pairs the five and I check. MP checks back. Ten on the river and I bet .25 into the .89 in the middle. Villain now raises pot which puts me all in. No flush possible, no straight possible and the line seems odd. I'm not worried about villain having KT top two pair because I have him counterfeited with the five pairing. Same thing goes for 2T two pair. Basically the main things I'm worried about are a slow played trip 5s or TT. Other than that it looks like air to me. I have .60 of my about a third of my stack in the middle so I'm getting 2:1 on a call. Normally I would fold here because I have nowhere near the nuts and I'm not pot committed but my read here is that I'm good so I call of the remainder of my stack. Villain shows a 3467ds rundown that missed and I sweep the chips. Looking forward to the day where this call is trivial but for now I'm pretty much in nut peddle/grind mode and usually bypass having to make read based decisions. Worked out this time.

Additional Iron Man semi-annual bonus info

The information in my previous post is incorrect. According to the 2+2 boards you actually get 45 days instead of 30 to clear your bonus. 50 points per day * 45 days = 2250 points which would clear $112.50 of the presumed $200 bonus. Clearing the entire bonus would take 4000 points over 45 days or an average of 89 points/day, a figure that I've cleared many time at .01/.02 and obviously much easier at .02/.05. Based on a 45 day clearing period I'm more seriously considering trying to clear the whole thing even though getting all of it isn't critical since they do pro-rate it. More money.

Five...five dollar...five dollar bonus

Just clocked in a few hands of multi-table nickel Omaha in order to ensure that I had enough points to clear the Take 2 promotion for the day. Since it's the fifth day I have five bucks coming to my account after the promo ends. Four more days and it will be twenty more. It's a little sobering that without rakeback or bonuses my bankroll figures would be underwater but then again without rake in the first place my bankroll would be a few hundred bucks. Looking forward to the 25 bucks nonetheless. Haven't been so happy to be getting my own money back since the last time I got a refund check from the IRS.

HOTD: It was the best of flops...

...it was the worst of flops. .01/.02 and there is a pot and call in front of me. I have AA69 which is good enough to repot to .31 and which gets half my stack in. Three callers including the BB who called .29 more cold. I'm ready for the ugliness since I couldn't isolate. Flop is 578 two hearts. Hey I flopped the joint but on a super wet board. My suspicion is confirmed when there is a bet and call in front of me and I'm forced to call of the rest of my stack with the current nuts. Everyone is all in when the turn brings the deuce of clubs, perfect blank. River is the deuce of diamonds. Yuck. Just needed one deuce of blank please.  Villain 1 had 789T ds with hearts and was actually favored on the flop over my nut straight. Villain 2 had 8866 and boated up. No chips for me.

Back on the negative side

Seems I lost some of my touch and bubbled out a couple more times which are the most expensive ones since you invested so much time but still get nothing to show for your work. In one tourney I took a loss when the would be bubble boy played hero and called off his entire 4th place stack with A5 suited and my K9 couldn't hit. That dropped me to less than a BB which gave me KsQs, flopped the NFD and rivered it to quadruple up. I then mercilessly stole blinds and built it up to within a whisker of third place who put his tourney life on the line with AKos which cracked my J4 suited. Bad luck I guess.

I'm back down to -10.35 for tourneys or -6.80 counting rakeback but by EV, HEM has me at down less than a buck. Just need my flat tires to hold up I guess. I'm 52% of the way to 100 and am spotty. Biggest issue is to let off the gas at the right times. It was a mistake for me to shove when I could have potted instead since blinds weren't that bad yet.

Additional Iron Man perk

According to the 2+2 boards FTP does a semi-annual bonus for players participating in the Iron Man Challenge where everyone gets a play through bonus depending on which levels they attained in the previous six months. It is not currently announced but that's how they have been doing it the past few years. Bronze = $25, Silver = $50, Gold = $75, and Iron = $100. I missed January and February but assuming that I hit silver for the remaining four months of the first half of the year that would mean an extra $200 bonus that I am eligible for. However, it isn't a totally free lunch since I need to clear the bonus at the rate of $1 per 20 Full Tilt Points or in other words that would be 4000 Full Tilt Points in the month of July [actually you get 45 days, see update] to clear the entire two bills though they pro-rate it so you don't need to clear the entire amount. Last month I cleared roughly 50 points per day for a total of 1500 which would be well short of the amount needed to clear the entire bonus but even the extra $75 would be a welcome addition to the bankroll. Plus I have no idea how many points I will be grinding by that time. Assuming the S&G thing works out I could churn out tourneys since they give 7 points per dollar of tourney rake compared to 1 point per dollar of rake for cash games. We'll have to see how that goes. Still, more "free" money that I'm not going to turn away.

HOTD: Trying to eliminate a short stack

$2 + .25 S&G with five players remaining. Not quite at the bubble but close. Short stack is obviously not at the keyboard since he is folding every single hand. Player to his right gets free chips each orbit unless one of us puts in a raise ahead of him. Three of us in the group are savvy enough to know that when the short stack cannot even pay a full BB that we all get in the hand and check it down. Blinds are 80/160 and shorty is all in in the BB for just 125 of it. MP calls, I flat, SB completes. We all check three streets, MP pairs his ace but the ghost stack wins with a diamond flush. Really? We're losing to a car with no driver? Short stack has just quadrupled up and lives on. Two orbits later the same short stack is all in in the SB. Three of us call him and check down the TJ2 2 8 board. Short stack quadruples up again with 79os. None of the rest of us have a card higher than a 7 and we all play the board so the side pot is chopped. Next orbit the short stack ends up with K2 and outflops everybody on a JKT flop but a Q on the river lets my ace take it down and finally eliminate the obstinate short stack.

After that hand we resume play and I have 5200 of the 13,500 in play and the other three players are all 3000 or less so I steal blinds with impunity as no one wants to go out on the bubble. Eventually I pop the bubble when my JcQc pairs a jack to elminate A2os and I have over half the chips in play. I continue to steal as both player try to hold on to get 2nd place. The two other stacks fight over a pot and then it's just two of us with roughly equal stacks. We do the shove dance for dozens of hands until we both finally get a hand and villain's KJ out-turns my flopped bottom pair from Q8os. A dozen more hands without a flop and I get called by A9os but this time my Q8os wins with top pair and I take down 1st place having villain outchipped by 460 chips before we both shoved. It took a while to kill off the stack on auto-pilot but in the end the good guys won another one.

Getting better

Played 10 more S&Gs with much better results. I toned down the aggro and let the game come to me more. Really managed the end game way better. Played big stack poker properly around the bubble and climbing the money ladder. Got my money in reasonably and had hands hold up better. In the ten tourneys I was 84% ROI while cashing 6 of the 10 including three firsts, two seconds, and one third which netted $18.90. The ten tourneys even includes one tourney window that somehow got lost under others and I ended up bubbling out in 4th. That helps to fix some of the earlier results and I am now at a 6.7% ROI overall cashing just shy of 40% and netting out $6.30 in winnings overall now which is actually worth over $9 after rakeback. Feeling much more comfortable after getting back into the S&G groove and hope to continue taking down some more cashes.

One third of the way there

Played my 33rd S&G and the numbers are less than ideal. I am down basically six buy $2 + .25 buy ins over that span for an ROI of -18% which just happens to be on the opposite side of zero than what I want. Some of this is variance but I also am not paying enough attention to the action ahead of me and there were numerous times where I should have just laid down my ace when someone before me has shown interest in the pot. I also need keep a better eye on my stack to blind ratio because the blinds snuck up on me in a couple places and I had to try to play catch up by getting aggro. Despite acknowledging that I should be potting more instead of shoving I didn't heed my own advice enough. I'm not sure if I'm just supposed to go broke with JJ vs KK early in the tourney or not. If I had just raised instead of shoved I could have folded to a shove...or probably not. I just don't think T1500 tourneys are deep enough to try making hero lay downs and I guess I'm just stacking off there.

The good news is that HEM says that I'm not doing as bad as the numbers say. To paraphrase Phil Hellmuth, "If it weren't for luck I'd be EV+." HEM allows you to basically get your expected tournament value in tourney ending all-in situations. So if I get in a coinflip with the same size stack of 2nd place heads up and lose then HEM calculates my EV for that tourney as midway between 1st and 2nd place money instead of the 2nd place money that I'd end up with after losing. So I have essentially been running bad in those situations because my EV for the 33 tourneys about $15 higher than where it actually is. That's only a +3.5% ROI but that's better than negative. I'll just need to play through it and get my actuals to match my EV so I can at least get into positive territory.

More tourneys

Not surprisingly I was not able to keep up my torrid pace of 100% ROI on tourneys. I entered 8 more S&Gs today and cashed in three of them, one 2nd and two 3rds which was not enough to cover the buy-ins for those tourneys though I'm still EV+ overall. Yeah, I know, small sample size which is why I want to get 100 done so I can work with a decent data set. When I came in second I started off by being outchipped 5:1 but battled back to about 2:1 because villain was folding everything. But I finally stepped in it when my Q9os ran into his AA. Bubbled out in two of the others when I shoved with A6 suited and AK and 99 got in a stack fight. Since I was the short stack I busted out in 4th while AK took third place money. The other bubble was when my A7os couldn't fend off 7c9c despite it being dominated. In my other bustouts I was crippled by JJ outflopping my QQ after a shove pre and AK losing a flip with 99. Still getting back in the rhythm of the S&Gs and need to tune my endgame play since I think I need to work in raising pot instead of shoving when I'm deep enough. I also am running into bubble considerations that I need to work through as well. So far so good though. I'm not kicking myself for any plays, my ROI is 13% and I'd be fine with 10%. I'm in the money 41.7% and my hourly earn is $1.76 so far which is way ahead of my Omaha play. We'll see how those number shape up as we head to 100 of them.

MMM: Iron Man 2

In my first Iron Man post I had briefly touched on FTP's Iron Man promotion which rewards frequent players. Today's mail is looking for more details about the program.

Mr. Cowboy,
What is this Iron Man thing that I've been hearing about? The name kinda rings a bell but I don't understand what it's all about.

Robert D. Jr.
Hollywood, CA

Hello Robert,

You know I'm still kinda getting the thing figured out myself but I'll tell you what I think I know about the program. The idea is to accrue Full Tilt Points on a frequent basis. You get one full tilt point (or fraction thereof) for each dollar of rake taken at the table you are at as long as you are dealt a hand. So if you have players shoving all in every hand you can just sit and collect Full Tilt Points while waiting for a premium hand that you want to gamble with.

If you acquire enough points often enough in a month then you achieve a level of status depending on the points and the frequency. For example, 25 days of 50 points is good enough for silver status but so is 15 day of 200 points per day. More days and/or more points will elevate your status. Furthermore you get increasing amounts of medal rewards for chaining together consecutive months. This is FTP's way to keep you on the site. With the medals you can purchase items from the Iron Man shop like clothing, more Full Tilt Points, cash, or tournament tokens. They also sell Iron days and Iron months so if you are not able to play for an extended amount of time you can pay to retain your status.

I was surprised to find out that I ended up with 95 medals at the end of March when I was only expecting 40. 40 of the them were just the base amount and since I'm opting out of the freerolls I got an extra 40 for that. It took some researching but I found out that I got an extra 15 because in February I played each day so I get a medal for their "One-a-Day" portion of the Iron Man challenge. That is good for a freeroll as well and/or more medals if you opt out. 95 is way better than the 40 I was expecting and that should be 105 next month due to the escalating medal schedule.

I was disappointed to find out that the tournament tokens that you can buy from the Iron Man store can not be directly converted to cash. But there are some $24+$2 tourneys which are supposed to be fairly soft and with flat payouts so I plan on entering those to generate cash from my Iron Man medals. Yes, you can directly buy cash with medals but you are dinged by a poor conversion ratio and I believe it works against your rakeback as well. From everything I've read the tourney tokens are the way to go.

It's not like getting 33% rakeback but the extra bonuses add up and help defer the differences between FTP's 27% and other sites even though it means you have to follow the will of FTP in order to get them.

Hope that helps!
Sushi Cowboy

HOTD: Now this is how wraps are supposed to work

I'm in the cutoff with 679Tss. Usually I will wait for only perfect rundowns but I figure that I'll give this one a flyer and see what the flop brings so I limp and four of us see a flop. Well wouldn't you know it but out comes the best flop ever...OK...not best best since it would need to be rainbow but rank-wise I get a perfect 58J which perfectly fills the gap in the rundown and covers both ends so now any 4, 6, 7, 9, T, or Q gives me a straight though only the lower half of them give me the nut straight. And since there are two clubs not all of them are clean outs but hey, I'll take it. Checks to me and I pot it. Two folds and villain to my right calls. Turn is an offsuit 6, one of my many outs giving me the nut straight. I pot it again and get called. River is a non-flush 7 and I still have the nuts. It's checked to me and I toss in my last seven pennies and get called by AQ99 no flush draw. Thanks for the chips Mr. second pair to the board and a gutshot!

Here come the S&G tourneys

New quarter, time to branch out. The next thing I'm going to try is NLHE sit and go tourneys. The plan is to get 100 single table tourneys under my belt to set a baseline earn rate and see how it compares to other ways to build the bankroll and I'm starting with the $2 + .25 tourneys. I skipped over the $1 + .20 tourneys because I am rolled enough to afford the $2 ones and it is only a 12.5% rake instead of 20%.

So far so good. I bought into four of them at the same time and more than broke even. First one done was when I lost a flip of 99 vs a guy who stacked off with AJos. Second one I lost with a dominated as shoved pre-flop. I don't have an issue with either of those. It has been a while since I've played an online S&G so I was still shaking off the rust. The blinds kinda snuck up on me faster than I expected too. Third tourney I got lucky when my KT out flopped AK which doubled me up to a viable stack. Then I weaseled my way into the money before eventually pulling out a first place finish which accomplished my short term goal of at least breaking even since first place pays $9, covering all four buy ins. The last table to finish I had a big hand when my AK dominated a lesser ace for stacks and I took chip lead. I bullied a little but mainly was just looking to avoid confrontations and cruise into the money which I eventually did. Second and third got into a big hand which crippled the third place player with less than 2 BB. I pick up KK and am willing to just check it down to eliminate the player so I flat call on the button. SB looks like he is playing along and he just completes. Not surprisingly the BB shoves and we both call. Flop comes out KQ3 and I'm just looking to knock off third place so we can move up the ladder but the SB fires out into a dry side pot. Well, if it's going to be like that I go ahead and shove and he snap calls with A3 for bottom pair top kicker which is way behind and I end up with about a 6:1 chip lead which I eventually parlay into another first place finish.

So I'm up $9 in tourneys so far. Unfortunately HEM doesn't seem to aggregate total bankroll between cash games and tourneys so I'll just track them separately on the blog. We'll see how the other tourneys go as I grind through them this week.

HOTD: Flopped Broadway in three way pot

I have AJxx in the BB and four of us see the flop of KQT rainbow. There's .20 in the pot and SB leads for .10. I min to .20. Next to act raises to .35. Fourth player folds. SB calls. I flat call. Turn is a blank. Checks to me and I pot it for basically my entire stack. Player behind me over-pots. SB folds and we chop it. In retrospect I think the correct move would have been to put in min-re-raise on the flop to try to get another bet out of the SB who I am guessing had two pair or a set, maybe with an open ender for a chop if an Ace comes. I'm pretty sure that 3rd to act has broadway as well. I don't have any redraw at all so part of why I called was to wait for a safe turn but I'm not sure if that was the most EV play. I'm pretty sure I'm chopping with the player behind so the question is how to get the most money from the player drawing. Given how safe the flop is I think I could have gambled more as opposed to a flush drawish board.

Free fallin'

Where did my nittyness go? Got way too fast and loose with my chips and ended up dropping about ten bucks yesterday including the bright idea to play after coming back from a late night of IRL cards. Dipped down as low as twelve bucks off of my green line peak which I can only partially write off to higher stakes. I think part of the issue was just trying to get enough time in to qualify for my Take 2 promo even though I was really busy with other tasks yesterday so I wasn't bringing my A game. Did an inspection of my hands and it looks like I'm doing too much chasing draws after the flop so I need to reign that in. I have my calendar more clear now so I'm going to try focusing in more and donking off chips.

Take 2 - Day 1

Still can't believe that FTP is offering up $25 bucks to players like me in their Take 2 promotion which I posted about before. I double checked my promo page and indeed I have already been credited with one day out of a possible nine. Seriously, this thing is going to be a walk in the park and a roughly 10% boost to my bankroll just for doing what I normally would anyway.

B-E Aggressive

I tried cranking up my aggression last session trying to isolate with strong starting hands. Sometimes it would work and others it wouldn't. I usually hover around an aggression factor of about 4 which is the AG part of TAG. That number is inflated somewhat by the fact that I fold so much more than from raising a lot. Last session I came in at 12.3 which is partly from intention and partly from picking up a run of good cards. The results were a six dollar divot in the roll but the decisions were sound. The biggest swing was when I got a full $1.75 buy in at 85% with top set which lost to a running flush. I think the biggest mistake was overplaying an overpair to the board. It turns out that I was correct but I think I could have played for a smaller pot given the stack depth. I got most of it in good after raising a donk bet but fell behind when the turn tripped up villain on a 952 5 board and his former second pair took down the pot after I paid him off. I do think I'm on the right track but need to temper the aggression a little bit so I come across as TAG and not a maniac. Even though I was getting cards I need to slow down when I don't hit well enough and maybe check a street to keep the pot smaller. Overall I think I'm on the right track despite the losses.

Hello variance

Filed under the "duh" category, the ride on the chart is going to get more bumpy now that I'm spending more time on the nickel tables. Earlier today I had a full $1.75 buy in all in pre-flop with aces against kings and tens carrying a 50% equity three way but the large overlay didn't hold and I missed out on a $5 pot which would have been a nice addition to the roll. Even though that amount is still relatively small compared to the entire roll it still invokes a cringe when the hand doesn't hold up. The nickel tables are still EV+ even with a pretty severe drought earlier today. Just have to keep plowing along and these bumps will all smooth out.

This is what folding looks like

Just had a session where I wasn't getting much to work with. Fold, fold, fold, then fold some more. Call a raise to see a flop then fold. Didn't rake too many pots. Was not tempted to try to play more hands, just rolled with the punches and took what the table offered me. 423 hands with a VPIP of 8.4. Down session but that's how it goes sometimes.

HOTD: Suck, re-suck, but not really

I've been stung by overplaying aces a couple times at the nickel table. They either got out-flopped or didn't stand up well enough. So I was a little wary when I got aces double suited in the SB knowing that it would be difficult to get $1.46 all in pre-flop. UTG limps and I raise it up to 3xBB. BB makes it .50 which is good news. UTG calls and I can now get my stack completely in and leave my fate to the cards. BB re-pots which is good news for me since it isolates and probably means he has KKxx which play awfully against aces. UTG folds and he shows KQTT with spades. Flop comes out 227 with two spades and I'm already dreading the flush coming. Turn is a T which boats up villain and now I'm kissing my chips goodbye. River is a glorious ace and I scoop a $3.42 pot, more than doubling up. It wasn't until I was reviewing hands afterward that I realized that my AA22 actually flopped quads and his flush draw, his boat, and my overboat were all irrelevant.

What a difference a stake makes

The .02/.05 stakes have seriously changed my game. I hadn't realized how loose calling standards had gotten until I jumped up a notch. The change was most noticeable when I had both penny and nickel tables open side by side. Since I'm playing so tight on the nickel tables it is very obvious how I would leak chips on the penny tables because I can see that I'm playing drastically different depending on the stakes.

I had another reasonably solid session on the nickels with two hands that got away from me. I had nearly a full buy in front of me which is $1.75, the minimum buy for the standard tables and I get AAKJss in the BB. Now I'm playing tight but I'm not going to pass on this hand. There is a pot sized raise from UTG and three other callers which is almost ideal conditions for me to get as much of my stack in as possible. A pot sized bet gets $1.02 in with .66 left behind and thins the field down to two callers. Flop is 623 rainbow which I wish weren't so coordinated but there's no way that I'm not jamming the last of my stack in getting 6:1. A fold, a call, then the button shoves with A237ds (this isn't O/8 buddy) so he hit two pair but I'm still about 1 in 4 to pull out a win. Turn boats him up and I'm down to two theoretical outs which don't come. A monster $5.38 pot goes away after getting most of my chips in good. The other hand I flopped the nut straight and got virtually my whole stack in on the flop but it turns out that I was being freerolled by the same straight with flush redraw which hit. Those were the two biggest losses of the session and considering the circumstances I'm OK with that.

I finish the session down by about a buck and a half but chalk it up to normal variance at the new stakes. Wouldn't do anything differently. I'm still +EV over the last 2000 hands, the new stakes makes the Full Tilt Points pile up much faster, and my game has been re-focused.

HOTD: How to play against a monster draw

I was involved in a hand today where I wonder how it could have played out differently. In this case I won but I want to figure out what villain could have done differently. .02/.05 stakes and I'm sitting on $1.48. Min-raise ahead of me and I call with QQJTds. Three of us see a flop of J92 with two of my suits so I have a non-nut flush draw, top pair, and an open ender. I lead out for .15 into a .35 pot. Hijack raises to .80, cutoff calls and it's .65 more for me to call getting about 3:1. He had me covered and the cutoff had us both outchipped. It occurs to me that I could be in really bad shape in a three handed pot if one or the other has a better flush draw and/or same or better straight draw, basically I could be possibly drawing to a chop at best. Nonetheless, I call. Turn brings a blank. I check, hijack shoves the rest of his stack, cutoff folds and now I have just .58 behind and getting almost 6:1 on a call which I do. River completes my flush without pairing the board and villain shows top set with nothing really else. Now assuming that all my draws were good I feel like I played it right but the question is what the guy with top set could have done. The first thought for me was that he could have flat called the flop bet then hammered the turn when a blank came since he still had the nuts at that point. If a dangerous card comes then he can slow down and reassess to see if he should try to boat up based on the betting. Or he could speed up if he wants to rep the nut straight or the nut flush. Or with the amount of presumed outs that I had I could have just kept my foot to the floor assuming that I was favored against whatever was out there and I will obviously get action from top set. Maybe it's just one of those hands where nobody is going anywhere and the chips will all end up in the middle but this scenario is not at all uncommon in Omaha and I want to have options sussed out for next time regardless of which side of the hand I'm on.

...and we're back

As some of you seem to already have guessed, the rumors of my bankroll's death were greatly exaggerated. As a matter of fact it is stronger than ever currently. After I cleared my 50 points yesterday I took the rest of the day off and didn't pick up again until this morning where I built it up a couple bucks more before taking a sudden four dollar setback though I didn't see anything too out of sorts with my play after reviewing the hands. I did take that opportunity to decide to jump on to the nickel tables and results so far have been promising. When looking at it as objectively as possible I don't feel like it was chasing at all. I am indeed severely over-rolled for .01/.02 games and now that the April 1 milestone is in the rearview mirror I don't need to worry so much about just holding the ship steady. I need to find out what can get my roll growing the best. So far I've had 182 hands of .02/.05 good for a whopping (relatively speaking) $7.35 and a $10+/hour earn rate. Super small sample but I'm feeling good about my play. I realize now how loose I had gotten at the penny tables and I am now back to being an ultra-nit now that I'm playing with scared money again. I would like to think that I don't need to play at slightly uncomfortable stakes in order to play well but then again if that is the result then there are worse things that could happen.

Busto...

It was a dark and stormy night...actually it was fairly clear but that's not relevant. I just got done with a marathon session with, shall we say, less than optimal results. I got back from playing poker IRL and figured I'd better get a start on Iron Man for the month. It actually started pretty good and I bumped up my roll by almost four bucks thanks to a heater but instead of banking the winnings I wanted to ride the heater which did a 180. Let me tell ya, the chart goes downhill much more easily than it goes uphill. What used to be do-no-wrong turned into couldn't get a hand to stand up for anything. All of my session profit evaporated and then some.

Instead of just chalking it up to variance I instead decided that I'm over-rolled for .01/.02 anyway and really should be playing .02/.05 based on the math. All it would take is a couple double ups of a dollar buy in and then I'd be even for the session. I think they call this "chasing" and I knew it at the time yet somehow that didn't matter. Let me introduce you to villain who was at three of the same tables that I was at. This guy would literally do nothing but keep his foot on the gas. Every time the action got to him he potted it so this is going to be easy, just wait for a premium hand and I'll be paid in no time. Well, kinda. AAxxds and I re-pot him and get it in pre-flop then he hits his crappy flush. Top set versus his running straight. Flush versus his bottom two pair boating up. I tilted off enough chips to drop below $220. Huh? That can't possibly be right can it? But somehow it was and I just couldn't pull myself away with that much of a crater even though every ounce of bankroll management told me to get out.

Have you heard of Rush Poker? Well they have it for Omaha and I looked at my chart and said "I remember when I used to struggle to get above $200 and I'm still $20 above that so really there's no harm in buying in for $20 at a .10/.25 Omaha table and just playing super nitty." Well nitty doesn't always get the job done because even when you flop the nut straight with flush redraws you can still lose to a guy with a gutshot to a higher straight. See ya later buy in.

Now I'm saying that I have to stop because I've traveled south of the magical $200 barrier and it is now that I decide that it is time to "take my shot." I've put in hundreds of hours at the table eeking out pennies per hour profit with no substantial money to show for it so if it worked for Jason, by gum it's going to work for me. By now I am six hours in and just plain not rational so it's "Hello .50/1 table!" But I'll buy in short to be "conservative." Let's just say that it was quick and painful. I now join the ranks of all other aspiring poker players who thought they could make it but ended up broke. I've learned my lesson...a little too late.