Monday, April 5, 2010

One third of the way there

Played my 33rd S&G and the numbers are less than ideal. I am down basically six buy $2 + .25 buy ins over that span for an ROI of -18% which just happens to be on the opposite side of zero than what I want. Some of this is variance but I also am not paying enough attention to the action ahead of me and there were numerous times where I should have just laid down my ace when someone before me has shown interest in the pot. I also need keep a better eye on my stack to blind ratio because the blinds snuck up on me in a couple places and I had to try to play catch up by getting aggro. Despite acknowledging that I should be potting more instead of shoving I didn't heed my own advice enough. I'm not sure if I'm just supposed to go broke with JJ vs KK early in the tourney or not. If I had just raised instead of shoved I could have folded to a shove...or probably not. I just don't think T1500 tourneys are deep enough to try making hero lay downs and I guess I'm just stacking off there.

The good news is that HEM says that I'm not doing as bad as the numbers say. To paraphrase Phil Hellmuth, "If it weren't for luck I'd be EV+." HEM allows you to basically get your expected tournament value in tourney ending all-in situations. So if I get in a coinflip with the same size stack of 2nd place heads up and lose then HEM calculates my EV for that tourney as midway between 1st and 2nd place money instead of the 2nd place money that I'd end up with after losing. So I have essentially been running bad in those situations because my EV for the 33 tourneys about $15 higher than where it actually is. That's only a +3.5% ROI but that's better than negative. I'll just need to play through it and get my actuals to match my EV so I can at least get into positive territory.

No comments:

Post a Comment