Monday, March 29, 2010
HOTD: Chasing the same flush draw
I have Ah9hxx and complete the SB leaving me .22 behind. Five to the flop which comes K63 two hearts giving me the nut flush draw. I pot it and everyone drops out except for UTG. He could have anything but my read was that he was on the same flush draw as I was given the board texture though his is obviously inferior. 5d on the turn makes a low wrap straight possible but I'm sticking with my read. If he indeed has a heart draw he would call my bet since I only have .12 behind and all I have is ace high which has limited showdown value. Likewise I am pretty sure he will check behind since it wasn't a heart. The plan is to leave myself some chips behind so that I can fire on the river. If the river is a heart I'm getting paid. If it is not a heart then he'll have to fold his missed draw. True to plan he checks behind on the turn. River is a Tc which does not complete the flush and is a relative blank. I fire the last of my stack into the middle and villain snap calls after rivering his set and shows QTT2 two hearts. The play was was executed properly and if villain didn't happen to catch his two outer on the end he almost certainly folds since there is the king on board. It was the right play, just didn't work out this time.
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nice work, that play will probably work 100 percent of the time at microstakes and 97 percent of the time at higher stakes where you may get a hero call on the river. You will lose so infrequently that it is surely long term profitable.
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