$100 swing...the wrong way

I was pressing up against $1200, then lost some tourneys. Launched five more tourneys (my usual multi-table) then within the first orbit lost Internet connectivity. Bye bye $25 plus juice. Got back on hours later and ran ten more buy ins into the ground with only one second place cash to show for it. Had the usual suckouts AJ vs A3, KK vs J8os, etc. Bottom line is that I took my roll down about $100 today. Bummer.

C2K

Here we go again. After the Cake 1000 challenge the next logical step is to go for C2K, the Cake 2000 challenge to double up from the last milestone. I'm getting more aggressive with the slope as well since I will need to net out more bankroll in less time than the last challenge. I also will be without the assistance of a mid-year bonus to pad my numbers and only have two rounds of freerolls to potentially benefit from. I've been pretty busy away from the tables this month and have decided to just try to clear silver level in the Iron Man promotion instead of iron last month. That will keep me from trying to press too hard to clear points and instead I can concentrate on making good decisions.

New chart has been posted at the top of the page.

MMM: Got a plan yet?

Yo Sushi,


You've had a while to think about it. What's the next step going to be?


Antonio E.
Las Vegas, NV

Antonio,

Yeah, I've been slow on the blog but have have been playing as normal. I knew this already but having a goal in front of me keeps me focused. In the past few days I've been playing, profitably, but probably not as well as if I had a target to go after so I'm going to arbitrarily pick Halloween, October 31, as my day to hit $2000 by. I'll have a new chart up shortly to view progress against the goal. Thanks for the prodding to get this done!

Sushi Cowboy

MMM: After $1K, what now?

Hey Sushi Cowboy,


Congrats on hitting the $1000 mark. So what's your plan now?

Dan H.
Santa Monica, CA

Dan,

I'm still formulating my next step but one thing for sure is that I'm not going to cash out. I want to leave everything in the account for now and keep building it up. I feel that the $5 Super Turbos are still plenty ripe for the picking and I want to keep playing those for now. I actually still don't have a large sample set to determine my long term earn rate in that game so for now it's going to be staying the course. I do think that I should get another carrot in front of me so that I don't donk off my roll like the last time I didn't have a target to shoot for. Right after crossing the $1000 line I looked at my chart and tried to extrapolate the line to see what I would have at Labor Day. Keeping in mind that $75 of the jump came a freeroll and that a lot of the early growth on the chart was from the mid-year bonus, I came up with $1250 as a number to try to reach by Labor Day which is a slightly faster curve than the pace I originally set.

I plan to move up to the $10 Super Turbos at some point now that I have 100 buy ins for that game. But I am going to crunch numbers and review hand histories to figure out exactly how I'm currently doing. Long term I want to find the equilibrium point between game difficulty and buy in so that I'm playing at the optimal stakes to maximize my hourly rate but that is a discussion for way down the line. For now, I'm going to keep plugging away at $5 ST SnGs for now and establish a baseline before moving on to anything else.

Thanks for writing.

Sushi Cowboy

A funny thing happened on the way to $1000...

First things first, the $1000 barrier has been broken with $7.27 to spare. That's $618.55 more than the starting amount on July 14th, one month and one day ago.

A brief timeline:
* July 1st - Adam wins the Cake II Challenge concluding at the end of June and immediately sets his sights on the $1000 mark. Having futzed around with my bankroll since the April 1 cutoff point, I am inspired by Adam's thoughts of a Cake III challenge.
* July 11th ($205.23) - I blog that I have adopted the goal of $1000 as well. Set mid-February as my deadline.
* July 14th ($388.72) - Reset deadline to Labor Day and begin charting the progress.
* July 22nd ($568.88) - Completely clear my $250 mid year bonus.
* July 29th ($558.52) - Start playing Super Turbo SnGs exclusively. Begin unworldly heater in those tourneys.
* August 2nd ($837.77) - Start to level off and being two week period of fluctuating up and down.
* August 14th ($988.35) - $146 day. Cashed for $5 and $75 in freerolls, got the rest in ST SnGs. I realize that I am within one 1st place ST SnG finish of the goal but decide that it'd be best to just leave the tables for the day and come back the next day instead.

Which brings us to today. Basically all I have to do is net out one 1st place finish but the tables were not going to make it easy. AA vs 33 all in pre and he spikes a trey.  KK vs QT and he flops trip tens. The usual and not tilting in the least but very untimely and I am more acutely aware of every result of every hand I'm involved in since I'm so close. I am down a few buy ins and leave the tables for a while to take a break. After a  while I jump in again later and like a scene from a movie, I get my cashier window up to $980.29 so a win puts me over, second place doesn't. I am triple tabling and in the last window I get it down to heads up. I am laser focused to get this thing done. I have a lead but am picking my spots carefully. I eventually get villain all in in terrible shape with his eights up against my jacks. I fade his two outer and do a virtual fist pump then immediately pull up the cashier window to see that glorious four digit figure but to my utter dismay I instead see $999.79 instead! It takes me half a second to remember that a win is only $19.50, not $20.00 so I end up tantalizingly close but still a paltry 21 cents short. Unbelievable.

So I mentally scramble to figure out how best to scare up two dimes and a penny. I decide against another $5 SnG and instead opt for nickel Rush to keep the variance down. I buy in for $2 at each of two different tables. I'm in lockdown mode and just looking for that one hand. All I need to do is take down a pot to put me over. I'm folding everything and blinding off nickels and pennies but I'm not concerned since any pot I get involved in will easily cover the blinds I'm paying. Then it comes, MP pots it to .17, button calls, and I'm in the BB with 99. I decide to flat call and see what the flop brings. Flop comes 356 rainbow. I am OOP and pot it to .53 knowing that an opening pot sized bet in Rush is usually a big pair or two big cards but when villain shoves my read jumps to two big cards since premium pairs would normally flat call there. Button folds and I go with my read and commit the rest of my stack. Villain, unsurprisingly shows AK. I fade his six outs on the next two streets and I instantly cash out of both windows up $1.30 which brings my cashier window to $1001.09 using up an extra few pixels of screen real estate to display that extra digit.

Pop the cork on the champagne! I'm getting Twitter warmed up and ready to crank out a blog post. Last step is to update the spreadsheet and see my progress line pop above the $1000 mark. I plug in the number and realize that I haven't gotten my rakeback number for the day which is, to my horror, -12.18 due to the overlay from the freerolls yesterday so instead of being over $1000, I'm still short by a few bucks!

I'm a little deflated after having two close calls with hitting the mark. I take another break before heading back to the felt then dive into the SnGs again. Unfortunately, I start off by going through two sets of three tables without cashing digging myself a $30 hole but come back with two wins and two seconds over the next six tourneys which puts me on the edge of $1000...again...but for real this time. Then for the truly final time today I am in a make or break situation. Heads up for the thousand dollar mark. Again, I have the lead and just need to pick my spot. Villain is very aggressive and shoving every hand. I decide to call off with KTos. He shows 78os and I have his suits covered. He spikes a seven on the flop but I river a ten spot to put me over. I recheck my math and verify that the numbers. Once I've dotted i's and crossed t's, I send out the tweet to announce that the goal has been reached.

The homestretch was a little more convoluted than I wanted but I can't complain. From an original target of a mid-February finish down to Labor Day and now ending up three weeks early, overall it's been a pretty good ride even with some bobbles at the finish line.

Knocking on the door of $1000

I got $5 in the One-a-Day freeroll and $75 in the Iron level Iron Man freeroll which brings my grand total to $988.35. Very close.

MMM: Why 6 max ST SnGs?

Hey Sushi,


Why are you are playing 6 max Super Turbo Sit and Go tourneys? Is there a reason you went with those?


Daniel N.
Las Vegas, Nevada

Daniel,

Good question. Frankly I just happened to run across them in the SnG category in my lobby window. Figured I'd give it a try and see what happens. Turns out they really work for me. They are short, usually under 15 minutes, so I can jump in and not feel tied to the computer for an extended amount of time. But they are still a tourney which matches my playing style and the combination is perfect. I did try full ring ST but got frustrated by idiots no playing properly on the bubble but at the short handed tables there are fewer people to interfere. I also tried normal stack SnGs back in April but didn't fare too well at those. Dunno what else to say but that format really works well for me. I enjoy the structure and it is EV+ for me to play. I will eventually branch out and try other games as well but for now I'm just going to stick with this one until I cross the 1K mark then reassess later.

Sushi Cowboy

Controlled landing

My concern about an epic crash has so far been unwarranted. I took a dip right after my big run up but have since recovered that and then some. I still have an enviable 12.7% ROI and this is about as ideal a way to transition out of my heater as possible. Just basically grinding away, being EV+, adding to my roll in an orderly fashion. I've actually been ever so slightly short of my daily quota but considering the cushion I had built up I'm not worried about it. I have freerolls coming up this weekend so hopefully I'll be able to pad the roll with some MTT money.

A down day

Built the roll up to as much as $850 before going on a cold streak. I bubbled out of a few tourneys in irritating ways but I closed at $810 still and I'm not complaining. I was aware of my missteps as I took them which is a lot better than just flying blind. Still even after a "bad day" my ROI is 17%. Would have been nice to have ended at the $850 mark instead but I can't get sucked into trying to keep winning streaks alive. It is actually a bit of a relief to give some money back. I was feeling pressure to keep my unrealistic numbers alive, kinda like a pitcher going into the sixth inning with a no hitter. Just a bunch of extra external factors which were distracting from the task at hand. Now that I have that monkey off my back I can just return to playing good solid SnG poker.

MMM: Account security

Hey Sushi,


Nice work on building your bankroll. One thing to keep in mind is that the bigger your roll, the more people want to hack your account. Trust me, I had it happen to me once. So take measures to secure your money.


Greg R.
Stoningham, CT

Greg,

Thanks for the warning. I'm kind of a security minded guy in general so I appreciate the concern. I have to confess that for convenience sake I've had the FTP client software save my login and my password for one click login. However, I keep my machine locked when not in use and my screen saver auto-locks after 15 minutes of idle time so I don't feel like that is a major issue. Ever since I started my serious run and went past $400 or so I did take the additional step of implementing a PIN, which in the FTP software is done by clicking on three different cards in sequence after entering your login and password. I feel that that is a very strong counter-measure against hacks. I do plan on continuing to build my roll though and will end up spending some FT Points on getting the security key software for my phone at some point. Thanks for the suggestion!

Sushi Cowboy

OK, now I'm just getting scared

I have no idea what is going on and quite frankly it's kinda freaking me out. I'm trying to run out some tourneys so that my chart will normalize and I'm just continuing to run good in massive proportions. According to HEM my $219.80 in winnings is substantially above my $55 EV adjusted amount. I know I had some suckouts today but I don't feel like I have been getting *that* lucky when getting it in while behind but the chart says otherwise.

Nonetheless, here I am sitting at $826 just a mere weekend after not being able to close above $600. My ROI is 21.4% which is ludicrous. According to 2+2 a 13% rate would be exceptional at these stakes. I'm ITM 42% of the time. I'm now about 22 days ahead of schedule for hitting 1K. This actually is more nerve wracking than anything else. It was fun at first but now it seems like the blissful calm before the storm of bankroll nosedive. But I don't know what to do about it. I'm trying to keep it all in perspective and not let the upswing affect my play but holy heck is it hard to ignore. Eeeeek. I'm just going to have to try to stay real even keeled and ride this thing out.

Below is my Sharkscope chart. The first half or so of that was my first go around of playing Sit and Go's back in April. After bottoming out the climb out of the cellar was from the $2 Super Turbos and the big gains at the far right (including the sharp cliffs) are all from the $5 Super Turbos. Ridonkulous.

Inevitable downturn

Well I can't just not play after being on a heater because that's not going to get it done. I will eventually have to grind out a ton of games and face the reality that I'm...gasp...not a double digit ROI player so I decide to play a little after Saturday Night Poker. Perhaps not a good idea? Dunno but I went on an immediate 0 for 6 slide after whiffing on two straight sets of three which is $31.80 right off the top of my roll and dropped me out of the vaunted 700 club. Bummer, but certainly a definite possibility. I call it a night then get up and play some more after getting some sleep. Bam, drop four more which is $53 off of peak and a number which is too close to approaching 10% of my roll. But I soldier on and finally get some of it back. I bounce around for a few more tourneys before catching fire and getting back to "just" four buy-ins down which I write off as just one first place money from breaking even for the day. I'm glad just to keep the damage minimized. But before calling it a day I decide to jump into the fray and finish off strong including three straight first place finishes which put me over the top for the day while setting a new high water mark of $737.38. Actually it should be over $740 but my rakeback reports have been empty for the past couple of days so there are a few bucks not accounted for. Inevitable downturn...postponed. ROI at an even more absurd 14.2% now. I'm bracing for impact.

700 club?

So on Thursday night/Friday morning I reported that I fell short of $600 and had been kinda treading water for a few days having breached the $600 mark but without closing above it. Fast forward 24 hours or so and not only have I pushed past the $600 mark but I drove straight through it and passed the $700 mark as well. That puts me across the half way mark of the approximately $400 starting point and the $1000 goal. I am (temporarily) killing these $5 Super Turbos. 128 games (meaningless stats-wise), in the money 41%, a wholly unrealistic 16% ROI, and a housing bubble looking graph. The red line indicates my luck adjusted winnings which shows that I should just merely be doing well and not outrageous. I know this ride can't last forever and I'm not wanting/expecting it to. I'm just glad to be EV+ at all and would be completely satisfied with 1/3 the ROI that I'm currently enjoying. I'm just hoping to avoid a giant crash and would prefer that when the tides turn that I regress into an EV neutral player until the graph flattens out to something more normal looking. But for now I got a huge spike that puts me about 12 days ahead of pace for the Labor Day goal so I'll try to nurse that cash infusion across the finish line.

Monster day

$56 added to the bankroll Friday. Yeah, I know this is an aberration. Adding 10% to the bankroll is obviously a pace that cannot be kept up. But I'm totally willing to soak up the positive side of high variance when it happens to balance out the times when I'm totally getting coolered. Still, 111 $5 tourneys running at a 8.9% ROI clip, I'll take it. Currently at $662.28.

Closed short of $600 again

I ended up dropping a few buy-ins...actually quite a few. At one point my cashier window read $514, which is one heck of an upswing from the $14 I had in June but still well off the peak for the day of about $570. Those $5.30 buy ins add up quickly and going for a streak without cashing will drop my total down quite a bit. The good news is that picking up a win adds $20 (OK, $19.50, but close enough) to the roll and gets it healthy in a hurry. Those are the biggest swings dollar wise and not that trivial percentage wise either. Even after getting some of that money back my HEM chart was well off of the previous numbers. Just like spring training, it's easy to either embrace or ignore the numbers...whichever makes you feel better. I dipped down far enough that my cash line actually submarined my EV line which is not all bad since I was still EV+ even "running bad" and the numbers imply that I am even more EV+. Even though I fell short of $600 by $11 bucks or so I still cleared my daily quota and retain an approximately three day cushion compared to the pace line.

Shifting to Super Turbo Sit and Go tourneys

Based on the previous success that I'd had with Super Turbo SnG tourneys I've decided to concentrate all efforts on that front. I have even put promotions and bonuses in second position which is a pretty big move since those are basically got me where I am now. So far it seems that my previous theory is correct - that I am going to be more profitable playing higher quality/less quantity since my game fell off considerably as I tried to clear points. So for now all I'm going to "push" for is the Iron Man one-a-day bonus which just means earning one point/day (which one SnG clears) and the minimum bronze level in order to keep my overall Iron Man monthly streak intact. Bronze level only requires 20 days at 50 points which I've been clearing lately without difficulty.

The other big news is that I'm moving on up stakes to the $5 + .30 SnGs. There are a couple of reasons for that. First of all, keeping the stakes relevant to my roll helps to make sure I don't fall asleep at the wheel. Being excessively over-rolled leads to a laissez-faire attitude since the stakes are too low to make bad play really sting. Secondly, the rake is slightly lower percentage-wise. $2+.15 is a 7.5% rake whereas $5+.30 is only 6%.

So far so good. Granted this is a near meaningless sample size of only 50 of them but my stats at this point are 12.6% ROI which is way good, unsustainably good. 38% in the money, which is normally scorching but considering that 33% of the six man field makes the money is merely just good. According to HEM all that adds up to $33.50 of profit and a $8.97 hourly rate. HEM also says that I am an essentially break even player after adjusting for luck. I'd say the the truth lies somewhere in between me just treading water and being an SnG savant but we know more after I get more tourneys under my belt.

Oh, and one other thing. I am currently at $613.97 and hope to close above six bills tonight. After flirting with the $600 barrier for almost a week I feel like I got the ship headed solidly in the right direction and hope to get that milestone further behind me.

MMM: Bronze, silver, gold, iron?

Sushi,


Congrats on clearing your Iron Man mid-year bonus. Are you going to go for the full $600 year end bonus by clearing the iron level each month for the rest of the year?


Allen C.
Riverside CA

Allen,

Unsure. I cleared 200 points for every day so far in July and have already qualified for iron level. However, I'm pretty sure that grinding out that many points is detrimental to my roll since I'm just odometer watching instead of concentrating on playing well. Since I've ground out my status for this month already I'm going to take it easy for the rest of the month and see how my roll does. It's hard to quantify how much the perks are worth for iron level since there are so many factors involved. But as far as the year end bonus goes, getting the entire $600 bonus equates to about $3/day. Considering that I reach silver level ($1.50/day) without much of an effort, the incremental difference is not that much. I've just noticed too many times when I've played poorly as I am reaching the last 10%-20% of my points for the day. Since I've finally found something that I'm reasonably EV+ at against the rake I feel the best thing to do now is concentrate on making money from that and let the bonuses come as they may. I will still be participating in Iron Man but just not pressing to max it out.

Sushi Cowboy

600

Made up a lot of ground at the STs tonight moving from the mid $550's to cresting above $600 for a while before giving some back. Still have a bunch more to play today and might close the day over $600 but for now I'm just glad to have cards fall my way enough to make up so much deficit from yesterday (and then some).

Down a bunch, all at ST SnGs

According to "the data" I am EV+ at the Super Turbos so I decided that today I'd play only STs and see how EV+ I am. The answer, for today at least, is not much. Down about $35 for the day which takes my total down to the $550-560 neighborhood after having stood at the edge of $600 earlier today. Very disappointing results given how close I was to getting past six bills.

The nice thing about the Sit and Go tourneys is that it is more difficult (not impossible mind you) to tilt off chips. Steam calling is tempered quite a bit by the fact that you need to return to square one if you biff of that tourney by making a stupid move. I don't really feel like I played poorly or tilted. I definitely noticed when someone caught a two or three outer but I don't feel that it changed my play. Just couldn't keep dominated hands from pulling out victories and kept finding players in the blinds with huge hands. Cards just didn't go my way but the chart says I'm up $150 in STs this month so I'll stick to the program.

Bam! That was quick.

New cashier total reads $512.00 after gluing the $250 mid-year bonus onto my existing cashier total. Sweet! Looking forward to the year end bonus since I'm planning to have $600 waiting to clear in January.